As anticipation builds for Vladimir Putin’s upcoming visit to Beijing, the Russian president engaged in an exchange of “congratulatory letters” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Sunday. This diplomatic gesture comes just days after Donald Trump departed China following a pivotal summit. Xi highlighted the strengthening ties between Russia and China, marking this year as the 30th anniversary of their strategic partnership. According to Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, Putin is set to arrive in China on Tuesday evening, with a meeting with Xi scheduled for Wednesday morning. Their agenda includes discussions on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline and other bilateral matters.
Hosting leaders from both the United States and Russia in such close succession is a rare occurrence in the post-Cold War era, sparking significant international attention. Analysts have noted this unusual diplomatic sequence, emphasizing the deepening relationship between China and Russia, which has raised concerns in Western circles. Since the onset of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, China’s economic and diplomatic backing has been instrumental in sustaining the conflict, according to Western diplomats and analysts. Xi and Putin have met over 40 times, exceeding Xi’s interactions with Western leaders.
The economic partnership between China and Russia has flourished, with trade reaching unprecedented levels since 2022. China is now purchasing over a quarter of Russia’s exports, with significant investments in Russian crude oil contributing hundreds of billions of dollars to Moscow’s war efforts in Ukraine. Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air indicates that Beijing has acquired more than $367 billion in Russian fossil fuels since the beginning of the conflict. This energy acquisition is crucial for China’s energy security, especially following disruptions in the Middle East affecting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
During Trump’s recent visit to China, discussions did not prominently feature the Ukraine conflict or the Sino-Russian relationship. Instead, talks focused on trade, Taiwan, and Middle Eastern affairs. Trump noted China’s agreement on the importance of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Taiwan was also a significant topic, with Xi cautioning Trump about potential conflicts if the issue is mishandled. Trump left undecided on a multibillion-dollar arms deal for Taiwan, a decision that could significantly impact Beijing’s ambitions regarding the self-governing island.
Speculation surrounds the potential subtext of the upcoming Xi-Putin meeting, particularly concerning Taiwan. Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, suggested that Beijing might seek additional fossil fuel agreements with Moscow to secure energy supplies in case of future conflicts. Enhancing Russian oil pipeline capacity to China, through projects like the Power of Siberia 2, would bolster Beijing’s energy security amid tensions over Taiwan.