In the face of an ever-changing US tariff landscape, European industry is issuing a simple, powerful demand: a policy of “no surprises.” The core complaint against the “derivative” products list is not just its cost, but its profound unpredictability, which violates the fundamental business need for a stable and foreseeable regulatory environment.
The current US approach is a policy of constant surprises. The initial list of 407 “derivative” categories was a surprise. The new consultation to expand it is another. The prospect of tri-annual reviews promises a future of recurring surprises, keeping businesses in a permanent state of alert.
“The issue is if we still have a number of things that are not clear… it is very difficult to claim we have certainty,” said Luisa Santos of BusinessEurope. This plea for clarity is a plea for an end to the surprises. Businesses need to know the rules of the game before they can play; they cannot operate effectively if the rules are rewritten mid-play.
The chaos this creates is evident. The need for companies to overpay tariffs is a direct result of their inability to predict how auditors will interpret the vague rules. They are managing the risk of a future surprise by accepting a definite cost in the present.
The EU’s diplomatic and industrial response is coalescing around this demand for predictability. Whether through calls for clarification or demands for new defensive measures, the underlying goal is the same: to restore a “no surprises” environment to transatlantic trade, where rules are clear, stable, and agreed upon.